Asia’s mountain glaciers will lose at least a third of their mass through global warming by the century’s end, with dire consequences for millions of people who rely on them for fresh water, researchers have said.

研究人員稱，到本世紀末，亞洲山區的冰川將因全球變暖而流失至少1/3，這將給數百萬依賴冰川獲得清潔水源的民眾帶來可怕后果。

This is a best-case scenario, based on the assumption that the world manages to limit average global warming to 1.5C over pre-industrial levels, a team wrote in the journal Nature.

一支研究團隊在《自然》期刊上寫道，這還是最好的設想，上述情況的前提是各國能夠將全球溫度的升高幅度控制在僅比工業化前高出1.5攝氏度。

“To meet the 1.5C target will be a task of uNPRecedented difficulty,” the researchers said, “and even then, 36% (give or take 7%) of the ice mass in the high mountains of Asia is projected to be lost” by 2100.

研究人員稱：“實現這一目標將是一項前所未有的艱巨任務。而且即便如此，到2100年，亞洲高山地區的冰川預計還將流失36%（誤差7%）。”

With warming of 3.5C, 4C and 6C respectively, Asian glacier losses could amount to 49%, 51% or 65% by the end of the century, according to the team’s modeling study.

根據該團隊的模擬研究，當氣溫升高幅度分別為3.5攝氏度、4攝氏度和6攝氏度時，亞洲冰川的流失量到本世紀末將相應達到49%、51%、65%。

The high mountains of Asia comprise a geographical region surrounding the Tibetan plateau, holding the biggest store of frozen water outside the poles.

亞洲地區的高山環繞西藏高原構成了一片地理區域，這里蘊藏了除南北極以外面積最大的冰川。

It feeds many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus and the Yarlung Zangbo River, on which hundreds of millions of people depend.

這片冰川灌溉了世界上許多偉大河流，包括養育了數億人的恒河、印度河和以及雅魯藏布江。

Nearly 200 nations adopted the Paris agreement in 2024, which sets the goal of limiting warming to a level “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to achieve a lower ceiling of 1.5C.

近200個國家2024年達成《巴黎協議》，該協議設定的目標是將升溫幅度限制在2攝氏度以下，并為把升溫控制在1.5攝氏度之內而努力。

Earth’s surface has already warmed by about 1C, according to scientists.

據科學家稱，地球表面溫度已經上升1攝氏度左右。

For high warming scenarios, experts predict land-gobbling sea-level rise, worsening storms, more frequent droughts and floods, species loss and disease spread.

專家預測，在高溫情況下，海平面會升高，陸地會被吞沒，暴風雨更加嚴重，干旱和洪水也會更加頻繁，還會導致物種滅絕和疾病肆虐。

The Asian high mountains, the new study said, were already warming more rapidly than the global average.

這項新的研究表明，亞洲高山地區的變暖速度已經超過全球平均水平。

A global temperature rise of 1.5C would mean an average increase in the region of about 2.1C, with differences between mountain ranges – all of which will warm by more than 1.5C.

全球氣溫上升1.5攝氏度意味著該地區氣溫大約平均上升2.1攝氏度，山脈之間氣溫上升幅度有所不同，但全部都將超過1.5攝氏度。

The Hindu Kush mountain range would warm by about 2.3C and the eastern Himalaya Mountains by 1.9C, the study forecast.

該研究預測，興都庫什山山脈氣溫上升約2.3攝氏度，而喜馬拉雅東部山脈氣溫將升高1.9攝氏度。

“Even if temperatures stabilize at their current level, (glacier) mass loss will continue for decades to come,” the researchers added.

研究人員還稱：“即使氣溫穩定在當前水平，冰川融化還要持續數十年。”

For the high mountain glaciers to survive, “it is essential to minimize the global temperature increase”.

為讓高山冰川繼續存在，“就必須將全球氣溫升高的幅度降到最低”。

Swaths of south Asia and China depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers for drinking water, electricity generation and irrigation.

南亞和中國大片地區都依靠喜馬拉雅冰川的融水發電灌溉，或作為飲用水。

A study in July in the journal Nature Climate Change said there was only a 5% chance of holding global warming under 2C. For 1.5C, the odds were about 1%.

《自然氣候變化》雜志7月份刊登的一篇研究稱，將全球變暖幅度控制在2攝氏度的可能性只有5%，而控制在1.5攝氏度的可能性約為1%。

On current trends, some experts project Earth is on track to warm by about 3C.

按照目前的趨勢，一些專家預測，地球氣溫將升高3攝氏度左右。

Asia’s mountain glaciers will lose at least a third of their mass through global warming by the century’s end, with dire consequences for millions of people who rely on them for fresh water, researchers have said.

研究人員稱，到本世紀末，亞洲山區的冰川將因全球變暖而流失至少1/3，這將給數百萬依賴冰川獲得清潔水源的民眾帶來可怕后果。

This is a best-case scenario, based on the assumption that the world manages to limit average global warming to 1.5C over pre-industrial levels, a team wrote in the journal Nature.

一支研究團隊在《自然》期刊上寫道，這還是最好的設想，上述情況的前提是各國能夠將全球溫度的升高幅度控制在僅比工業化前高出1.5攝氏度。

“To meet the 1.5C target will be a task of uNPRecedented difficulty,” the researchers said, “and even then, 36% (give or take 7%) of the ice mass in the high mountains of Asia is projected to be lost” by 2100.

研究人員稱：“實現這一目標將是一項前所未有的艱巨任務。而且即便如此，到2100年，亞洲高山地區的冰川預計還將流失36%（誤差7%）。”

With warming of 3.5C, 4C and 6C respectively, Asian glacier losses could amount to 49%, 51% or 65% by the end of the century, according to the team’s modeling study.

根據該團隊的模擬研究，當氣溫升高幅度分別為3.5攝氏度、4攝氏度和6攝氏度時，亞洲冰川的流失量到本世紀末將相應達到49%、51%、65%。

The high mountains of Asia comprise a geographical region surrounding the Tibetan plateau, holding the biggest store of frozen water outside the poles.

亞洲地區的高山環繞西藏高原構成了一片地理區域，這里蘊藏了除南北極以外面積最大的冰川。

It feeds many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus and the Yarlung Zangbo River, on which hundreds of millions of people depend.

這片冰川灌溉了世界上許多偉大河流，包括養育了數億人的恒河、印度河和以及雅魯藏布江。

Nearly 200 nations adopted the Paris agreement in 2024, which sets the goal of limiting warming to a level “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to achieve a lower ceiling of 1.5C.

近200個國家2024年達成《巴黎協議》，該協議設定的目標是將升溫幅度限制在2攝氏度以下，并為把升溫控制在1.5攝氏度之內而努力。

Earth’s surface has already warmed by about 1C, according to scientists.

據科學家稱，地球表面溫度已經上升1攝氏度左右。

For high warming scenarios, experts predict land-gobbling sea-level rise, worsening storms, more frequent droughts and floods, species loss and disease spread.

專家預測，在高溫情況下，海平面會升高，陸地會被吞沒，暴風雨更加嚴重，干旱和洪水也會更加頻繁，還會導致物種滅絕和疾病肆虐。

The Asian high mountains, the new study said, were already warming more rapidly than the global average.

這項新的研究表明，亞洲高山地區的變暖速度已經超過全球平均水平。

A global temperature rise of 1.5C would mean an average increase in the region of about 2.1C, with differences between mountain ranges – all of which will warm by more than 1.5C.

全球氣溫上升1.5攝氏度意味著該地區氣溫大約平均上升2.1攝氏度，山脈之間氣溫上升幅度有所不同，但全部都將超過1.5攝氏度。

The Hindu Kush mountain range would warm by about 2.3C and the eastern Himalaya Mountains by 1.9C, the study forecast.

該研究預測，興都庫什山山脈氣溫上升約2.3攝氏度，而喜馬拉雅東部山脈氣溫將升高1.9攝氏度。

“Even if temperatures stabilize at their current level, (glacier) mass loss will continue for decades to come,” the researchers added.

研究人員還稱：“即使氣溫穩定在當前水平，冰川融化還要持續數十年。”

For the high mountain glaciers to survive, “it is essential to minimize the global temperature increase”.

為讓高山冰川繼續存在，“就必須將全球氣溫升高的幅度降到最低”。

Swaths of south Asia and China depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers for drinking water, electricity generation and irrigation.

南亞和中國大片地區都依靠喜馬拉雅冰川的融水發電灌溉，或作為飲用水。

A study in July in the journal Nature Climate Change said there was only a 5% chance of holding global warming under 2C. For 1.5C, the odds were about 1%.

《自然氣候變化》雜志7月份刊登的一篇研究稱，將全球變暖幅度控制在2攝氏度的可能性只有5%，而控制在1.5攝氏度的可能性約為1%。

On current trends, some experts project Earth is on track to warm by about 3C.

按照目前的趨勢，一些專家預測，地球氣溫將升高3攝氏度左右。